Price Growth Momentum Stronger In Lower End Of Market In October
CCRSI RELEASE – November 2019
(With data through October 2019)
Print Release (PDF)
Complete CCRSI data set accompanying this release
PRICE GROWTH MOMENTUM STRONGER IN LOWER END OF MARKET IN OCTOBER
This month's CoStar Commercial Repeat Sale Indices (CCRSI) provides the market's first look at commercial real estate pricing trends through October 2019. Based on 1,412 repeat sale pairs in October 2019 and more than 218,383 repeat sales since 1996, the CCRSI offers the broadest measure of commercial real estate repeat sales activity.
CCRSI National Results Highlights
- STEADY PRICE GROWTH IN SECONDARY MARKETS OFFSETS SLOWDOWN AT TOP END OF CRE MARKET IN OCTOBER. The value-weighted U.S. Composite Index, which reflects larger asset sales common in core markets, fell a modest 0.5% in October 2019, despite a solid 7.5% gain in the 12-month period ending in October 2019. The flattening in price growth at the top of the market in October 2019 reflects the already strong price gains achieved in the core markets that led growth this cycle. The value-weighted US Composite Index is already 38% above its prior peak level reached in 2009. Meanwhile, the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index, which reflects the more numerous but lower-priced property sales typical of secondary and tertiary markets, advanced by a stronger 0.6% in the month of October 2019, with a 7.1% gain in the 12-month period ending in October 2019. Secondary markets began their recovery later, but solid fundamentals performance this cycle has fueled late cycle price gains.
- THE RECENT MOMENTUM IN THE GENERAL COMMERCIAL SEGMENT DEMONSTRATES THE BREADTH OF THE PRICING RECOVERY. Recent pricing trends in the composite indices were mirrored in the two sub-indices of the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index. The General Commercial segment, which is influenced by smaller, lower-priced properties, increased 1.1% in October 2019 and 8.1% for the 12-month period ending in October 2019. Meanwhile, the Investment-Grade segment, which reflects higher-value properties, fell 0.9% in October 2019, leading to annual growth of just 2% in the 12-month period ending in October 2019.
- TRANSACTION VOLUME THROUGH THE FIRST 10 MONTHS OF 2019 ON PACE FOR RECORD YEAR. Composite pair volume of $121 billion through the first 10 months of 2019 was 2.7% higher than the same period in 2018, suggesting capital flows are increasing from last year’s record-setting levels. The rise in sales volume is relatively broad-based across markets, with the General Commercial segment up 3.5% and the Investment Grade segment increasing 2.4% year-to-date in October 2019.
- OTHER MEASURES DEMONSTRATE A LIQUID MARKET FOR BOTH BUYERS AND SELLERS. The average time on the market for for-sale properties dropped 4.9% in the 12-month period ending in October 2019 and the sale-price-to-asking-price ratio of 92.4% remained near a cyclical peak. Meanwhile, the share of properties withdrawn from the market by discouraged sellers remained near its two-year average of 27% in October 2019.
About the CoStar Commercial Repeat-Sale Indices
The CoStar Commercial Repeat-Sale Indices (CCRSI) are the most comprehensive and accurate measure of commercial real estate prices in the United States. In addition to the national Composite Index (presented in both equal-weighted and value-weighted versions), national Investment-Grade Index, and national General Commercial Index, which we report monthly, we report quarterly on 30 sub-indices in the CoStar index family. The sub-indices include breakdowns by property sector (office, industrial, retail, multifamily, hospitality, and land), by region of the country (Northeast, South, Midwest, and West), by transaction size and quality (general commercial, investment-grade), and by market size (composite index of the prime market areas in the country).
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